Methodology: After two new executive actions from the Biden-Harris administration, we tested multiple positive, contrast, and negative immigration messages with Blue Rose Research to see which was best at shifting Harris vote choice. These messages were tested in English and Spanish. The English-language test ran from July 10 to July 23 and the Spanish-language test ran from July 11 to August 1. Both tests were conducted in AZ, CO, FL, GA, MI, NV, NM, NC, OH, PA, TX, and WI. We collected a total of 10,282 English survey responses (5,467 from Latino respondents) and 7,168 Spanish responses (from Latinos only).

Recommendations: 

• Prioritize negative messaging on Trump’s immigration plans in both English and Spanish. The best testing messages continue to reference his plans to use the National Guard for large-scale raids that would deport millions of immigrants, including those who have been living and working in the US for decades. 

• “Trump has repeatedly promised that, if reelected, he will pursue ‘the largest domestic deportation operation in history,’ deporting millions of immigrants who have been living and working here for decades. His top immigration advisor shared Trump’s plans to use the National Guard from Republican-controlled states to round up every last undocumented immigrant in the country in “large-scale raids” and put them in internment camps.”

• “Trump proudly brags about his cruel family separation policy, which saw crying young children ripped from the arms of their parents and placed in cages. Trump recently defended the policy of family separation and refuses to rule out bringing it back. In fact, Trump says he will use the military and national guard to launch sweeping immigration raids across the country to deport millions of people no matter how long they’ve lived and worked here, separating even more families if he’s re-elected.”

• Keep family separation arguments forward-looking. Connect Trump’s 2016 family separation policies to his future plans to separate families by deporting millions of long-term immigrants if he’s elected.

• “…Trump says he will use the military and national guard to launch sweeping immigration raids across the country to deport millions of people no matter how long they’ve lived and worked here, separating even more families if he’s re-elected.” 

• “…Donald Trump proudly brags about his cruel family separation policy, which saw crying young children ripped from the arms of their parents and placed in cages. He refuses to rule out reviving it if he’s re-elected…”

• The best contrast frame is focused on family: “The Biden-Harris administration is keeping American families together, while Trump brags about tearing them apart..”

• Avoid attempts to out-Trump Trump. Messaging on border security alone is consistently among the least effective approaches - for Latinos and non-Latinos, and in both English and Spanish.

• Messaging on Republican obstruction on the border bill was less effective in this round of testing. We recommend using it to counter Republican attacks on the border, but do not recommend it as a proactive messaging strategy. 

To see the full effect on vote choice by message, please download the full report below.