2024 Home Stretch Testing Memo

In the final weeks of the 2024 election, we tested several videos in English and Spanish among Latino voters across the US. We worked with Swayable to test 7 videos using randomized controlled trial (RCT) survey experiments to see which was best at shifting Harris vote choice, vote intent, linked fate, and perceptions that Democrats care about “people like you.” We tested videos about abortion in Spanish, sports metaphors, and dictators. Below is a summary of our findings.

Summary of Results

Abortion

We continue to see storytelling abortion ads - and abortion ads in general - be top performers in English-language testing among Latinos. It was the top performing English message among all Latinos and among Latino men, and it was the only message with significant effects on Harris vote choice and perceptions that Democrats care about “people like you.” 

In Spanish, we saw that the Harris campaign’s 15 sec version of the Determination ad focused only on abortion was significantly effective at increasing Harris vote choice and perceptions that Democrats care. This is the first Spanish ad focused solely on abortion that has increased vote choice for Dems in this way among Spanish-speakers in our testing at Equis. That means, "luchar por la libertad reproductiva de las mujeres" and "luchar por los derechos reproductivos de las mujeres" is our best testing language for abortion messaging in Spanish.

We also tested the Hadley abortion story video among Spanish-speakers with Spanish subtitles and did not find it to be as effective as it was in English. 

Latino Men/Sports Metaphors

Neither the Walz “4th Quarter” nor the Steve Kerr DNC speech video significantly increased Harris vote choice among Latino men in English. However, we do see that the shift in vote choice from the videos was greater among men than among women (about +2pp difference). While not a silver bullet, there does seem to be some evidence that sports metaphors and male messengers may increase effectiveness among Latino men. More research is needed. 

Dictators 

Neither of the dictator ads tested significantly increased support for Harris in English. In Spanish, only the Ana Navarro DNC speech effectively increased Harris vote choice. This aligns with previous research from Equis that shows comparing Trump to Latin American dictators is perceived as offensive and untrue among many Latino voters. The best approach to doing it at all would be to use a messenger who experienced living under a dictatorship first hand. Even then, the approach is only effective among Spanish-dominants. We don’t recommend using dictator comparisons in advertising to Latino voters in general.